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12/26/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 2011 season in professional golf could be known for a few different things.
First, Tiger Woods won again.
Granted, it was his own unofficial event with 17 other players in the field, but a win is a win. Woods' Chevron World Challenge title was his first victory since the 2009 car accident that derailed his personal and professional life.
Ever since Woods lost his No. 1 world ranking, no one really claimed it as his own. Lee Westwood test-drove it. Martin Kaymer hung on for a time, but Luke Donald made it his own.
We had Rory McIlroy blow the Masters in epic fashion, then come back and win the U.S. Open so convincingly that the final round was less exciting than a tepid bath.
The team international events were excellent, as always.
Most of the majors on most tours were thrilling.
With some of the stars of the game on the downswing of their careers, new blood stepped up and performed.
But when it came to performance, the 2011 season belonged to one young lady.
PLAYER OF THE YEAR - The Year of Yani
All of 22 years old, Yani Tseng continued an old tradition on the LPGA Tour -- dominance.
First, it was Annika Sorenstam in the early '00s. Then, Lorena Ochoa owned women's golf until her retirement.
With both gone, Tseng, who bought Sorenstam's old house and must be inhabited with the Swede's presence, has risen to the top of the sport.
Tseng won 11 times worldwide, including seven events on the LPGA Tour, and two of the victories were majors. When she captured the LPGA Championship (by 10 shots), Tseng became the youngest golfer -- male or female -- to win four majors.
When she successfully defended her title at the Women's British Open, the same record applied -- youngest to five majors.
For a point of comparison, Tiger Woods collected his fifth major title at the age of 24. Sorenstam didn't win a tournament -- any tournament -- until she was 24.
Tseng almost had a third major of 2011, but finished as the runner-up to Stacy Lewis at the Kraft Nabisco Championship. Tseng squandered that title in the season's first major and didn't do that again.
She made 21 cuts in 22 events, finishing in the top five in 12 of them and the top 10 in two more.
She led the tour in scoring average by almost a FULL stroke and was the only player who averaged under 70 strokes per round. Tseng had almost 60 more birdies than anyone on tour and to top it off, she led the tour in driving distance.
Tseng is the No. 1 player in the Rolex Rankings and the No. 1 golfer in the world for 2011.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - The major rookie
This was a tough call considering two rookies won majors on the PGA Tour in 2011.
Charl Schwartzel took home the Masters in thrilling fashion, making birdie at the final four holes to don the green jacket. But Schwartzel was an established European Tour competitor, so this honor goes to a more conventional rookie.
Keegan Bradley earned his PGA Tour card in 2011 thanks to his finish on the Nationwide Tour in 2010. He first broke into the winner's circle with a playoff victory over Ryan Palmer at the Byron Nelson Championship, but cemented his awesome rookie campaign at the PGA Championship at Atlanta Athletic Club.
Bradley overcame a five-stroke deficit with three to play in regulation to tie Jason Dufner, who limped into the clubhouse with three bogeys in his last four holes.
Bradley played the three-hole extra session in one-under par. He needed a two- putt par at the 18th and got it to become the third player in history to win in his major championship debut.
The nephew of Hall of Famer Pat Bradley became the first PGA Tour rookie to win twice in his first season since Todd Hamilton seven years ago. He should have been a pick for Fred Couples' American Presidents Cup team, but Bradley shouldn't have any trouble making next year's U.S. Ryder Cup team for Davis Love III.
SHOT OF THE YEAR - "I mean, he spun it. That's all you need to know."
There are few scenarios that offer more pressure than being in a playoff for the Tour Championship.
First, the victory itself is important. PGA Tour wins don't grow on trees. First place at the Tour Championship was worth $1.44 million and that doesn't grow on trees, either.
But there's money and there's obscene, silly amounts of money and the latter was the case at the Tour Championship. In addition to the $1.44 million, which is nothing to sneeze at, the winner of sudden death on this particular Sunday in September was going to walk off with $10 million more for winning the FedEx Cup.
Bill Haas and Hunter Mahan parred the first playoff hole, then Haas appeared to be in trouble at the second, the par-four 17th. Haas' approach landed in a pond next to the green, while Mahan was safely on with 25 feet for birdie.
Haas' ball was only in the water halfway, so he elected play his third from the edge of the lake. He blasted out, got the ball to check somehow and stopped it two feet from the cup.
Mahan missed his birdie putt and Haas tapped in for par.
They went one more hole before Haas won the playoff, the Tour Championship and $11.44 million.
"There was quite a bit of room there. His ball was maybe half in," Mahan said in a televised interview after the loss. "I mean, he spun it. That's all you need to know."
TOURNAMENT OF THE YEAR - The Masters
A beautiful spring Sunday in Augusta started with the promise of golf's best young player winning a major pretty early in his career.
Rory McIlroy was one shot clear after the front nine of the final round, then hit one of the worst tee shots in recent memory: At the 10th, his ball landed near someone's day room.
McIlroy finished with an 80 and became a non-factor on the back nine -- which is, after all, where the Masters really begins.
First came Tiger Woods' run.
He made the turn in 31 thanks to a 10-foot eagle putt at eight and found himself tied for the lead, but came up a little too short. Woods didn't birdie the par-five 13th and hit an amazing second to four feet at the par-five 15th, but lipped out the eagle putt.
Woods, Luke Donald, Geoff Ogilvy, Adam Scott, Jason Day, Angel Cabrera, K.J. Choi and Charl Schwartzel were the contenders.
Schwartzel, in the group behind Scott on Sunday, got up and down for birdie from behind the green at 15 to match Scott in first at 11-under par. Scott hit his tee ball to two feet at 16 and tapped in for birdie and the lead.
Schwartzel's tee ball at 16 came up 15 feet short of the stick, but he ran home the birdie putt to once again tie Scott. The young Australian hit a terrible drive at 17 and knocked his second into a bunker. His blast from the trap came up 12 feet short, but he made that par putt and stayed tied.
Day birdied 17 to get within one, but Schwartzel continued his incredible run with the putter. He sank a 10-foot birdie putt at No. 17 to move one shot clear.
Ogilvy and Donald got into the clubhouse at 10-under, but it was clear that the pair and Woods would come up a bit short.
It was down to Schwartzel, Scott and Day, but Day needed a birdie at 18. He got it, and Scott two-putted for par.
Schwartzel was one ahead with one to play. He found the fairway at the last, and his approach stopped 18 feet right of the flag. He had two putts to win his first major and didn't need them.
Schwartzel poured in the birdie putt, his fourth in a row, and walked off to Butler Cabin to put on his green jacket.
Needless to say, no one in the history of the Masters finished with four birdies in a row to win the tournament. Schwartzel finished the year ninth in the world.
GOOD YEAR
Donald - Became the world No. 1 with a great playoff victory over then No. 1 Lee Westwood at the BMW PGA Championship in late May. Is the first player in history to win the money title on both the PGA Tour and the European Tour in the same season.
McIlroy - Don't shed too many tears for poor Rory. After the epic collapse at Augusta, McIlroy responded in a big way at the next major -- the U.S. Open at Congressional. He essentially wrapped up the tournament by happy hour on Friday and ended up with an eight-stroke victory.
Day - Runner-up in the first two majors and became a top-10 player in the world.
Fred Couples - Won a major on the Champions Tour and his work as captain of the U.S. Presidents Cup team has been sensational. He went out on a big limb and tabbed Woods for the team almost a month before he needed to and Woods delivered. For the second consecutive Presidents Cup -- and second Couples has led the team -- Woods secured the winning point for the American side, but Couples' decision, coupled (pun intended) with his laid-back approach has made the U.S. team a powerhouse.
Suzann Pettersen - Two wins in 2011 propelled her to second in the world, but her role as the leader of the European Solheim Cup team earned her a spot here. After dozens of weather delays, even during the singles, Pettersen led a huge rally for her side by knocking off Michelle Wie in a classic show a gutsy putting. Caroline Hedwall, clearly inspired by Pettersen, overcame a 2-down with two to play deficit, then Azahara Munoz won 17 in the anchor match to give Europe the Cup. This was Pettersen's team.
BAD YEAR
Michelle Wie - Her Solheim Cup loss was understandable, but six top 10s in a season when you're supposed to be a star is unacceptable.
Bernhard Langer - Yes, the German star battled injuries, but he was the 2010 Champions Tour Player of the Year, and, despite a victory, finished 24th on the Charles Schwab Cup race.
Jim Furyk - He won the FedEx Cup in 2010 and fell to 50th in the world rankings by Christmas 2011. Furyk had a great Presidents Cup, but he barely made the team in '11 after being the best American in '10.
<< Wild hope to snap slide against streaking Avs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of Northwest Division teams heading in opposite
directions will meet tonight in St. Paul, as the sliding Wild host the surging
Avalanche at Xcel Energy Center.
The Wild have lost their last six games (0-4-2) and ent
<< Marchand highlights NHL's 'Three Stars'
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston Bruins forward Brad Marchand, New York
Rangers sniper Marian Gaborik and Colorado Avalanche goaltender Jean-Sebastien
Giguere have been named the NHL's "Three Stars" for the week ending December
25.
<< Handing out NFL holiday gifts and grinches
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Guess Rex Ryan really has been naughty this
year.
The ever-bombastic Jets head coach's Christmas Eve meal consisted one of one
mighty big helping of humble pie courtesy of the crosstown rival Giants in
Sa
<< Rockets sign C Dalembert to multi-year deal
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Rockets signed veteran center
Samuel Dalembert to a multi-year contract on Monday.
"Samuel is someone we had great interest in signing as a free agent," said
Rockets general manager Daryl
Jaguars place DE Roth, CB Youboty on IR >>
Jacksonville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Jacksonville Jaguars placed defensive
end Matt Roth and cornerback Ashton Youboty on injured reserve Monday.
Roth hadn't played since suffering a concussion at Cleveland on November 20.
The 29-year
Syracuse remains solid No. 1 in AP poll >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Syracuse remained a solid No. 1 Monday in the
Associated Press college basketball poll.
The undefeated Orange (13-0) received 54 first-place votes, up one from last
week, after beating Bucknell and Tulane i
Rangers D Staal cleared for contact >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Rangers defenseman Marc Staal
has finally been cleared for contact.
The 24-year-old blueliner is still on the road to recovering from a concussion
he suffered in February after a hit by hi
Vikings RB Peterson has torn ACL and MCL >>
Eden Prairie, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vikings running back Adrian Peterson tore
both the anterior cruciate ligament and medial collateral ligament in his left
knee Saturday, but the team is optimistic he will be back early next season.
Minnes
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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