Colsaerts starts strong at Volvo Golf Champions

Golf Betting Lines

01/19/2012 - George, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nicolas Colsaerts fired a nine-under 64 on Thursday to take the opening-round lead of the Volvo Golf Champions event.

He owns a four-stroke cushion after round one at the par-73 Links at Fancourt.

The field is an exclusive one with only winners from last year's European Tour schedule, winners from the first two events of 2012 and current tour members under the age of 50 with more than 10 victories.

Last week's Joburg Open winner Branden Grace, Thomas Aiken and Tom Lewis share second place at five-under 68.

Three-time major champion Padraig Harrington, 2010 British Open winner Louis Oosthuizen, David Horsey and Joost Luiten are tied for fifth at four-under-par 69.

Everyone is chasing Colsaerts, a Belgian who gained entry into the field this week thanks to his victory at last year's China Open.

Colsaerts broke into red figures with a 12-foot birdie putt at the second, then dropped a shot four holes later. He polished off his front nine with consecutive birdies at eight and nine.

Those back-to-back birdies before the turn kicked off an amazing run. He birdied 10 and 11 for four birdies in a row, then, after a par at the 12th, birdied the 13th.

Colsaerts parred the 14th hole, but got into the clubhouse in grand style.

He knocked his approach to six feet to set up birdie at the 15th. Colsaerts drained a putt of similar length for birdie at No. 16 and tallied his third straight birdie at the par-three 17th.

Colsaerts, now three shots ahead at eight-under par, two-putted from 35 feet at the par-five closing hole to sign for his nine-under 64.

"This is probably the best of my life. It's a serious test of golf," said Colsaerts. "I think the longest putt I holed was from 12 feet on the second."

Colin Montgomerie, in the field this week due to his career wins total, shot a three-under 71 and is knotted in ninth place with Matthew Zions.

The tournament is without a defending champion. Paul Casey won last year, but is out of action for at least two months after he dislocated his right shoulder in a snowboarding accident in Colorado.

Reigning British Open champion Darren Clarke only managed a one-over 74 and is tied for 24th, while last year's Masters winner, Charl Schwartzel, struggled to a two-over 75 on Thursday.

NOTES: Colsaerts led the European Tour in driving distance two years ago...This was not Colsaerts' lowest round on tour. He fired 62s in Indonesia in 2005 and the Netherlands two years ago, but both came on par-70 layouts...Ernie Els, who is still not eligible for the Masters, shot a two- under 71.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.