Reds, Owings seek to slow down Pujols

Baseball Betting Lines

07/04/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Right-hander Brad Thompson starts against the Cincinnati Reds for the second time this season today when the St. Louis Cardinals head to Great American Ball Park for the middle test of a three-game series with their National League Central Division rivals.

Thompson, who entered 2009 with just 24 starts in 153 big-league appearances, began this season with nine straight outings out of the bullpen before getting a start against the Reds on June 2.

He went five innings in the Cardinals' 5-2 win, getting a no-decision after giving up five hits and two runs in five innings.

Since, he's 2-3 in five starts, allowing 16 earned runs in 28 1/3 innings.

For Cincinnati, resurgent No. 5 starter Micah Owings seeks a third win in four starts.

The 26-year-old Georgian was 3-7 after losing four straight starts between May 16 and June 5, before toppling Atlanta, 4-3, on June 17.

He dropped a 7-5 verdict at Toronto six days later, but recovered again in the northeastern portion of the "Battle of Ohio," defeating the Cleveland Indians, 8-1, with six innings of five-hit, one-run ball.

Owings got a no-decision in his lone career start against the Cardinals while with Arizona, giving up four hits and seven runs - two earned - in 2 2/3 innings.

The Cardinals enter the day in sole possession of first place in the tightly- bunched NL Central, leading second-place Milwaukee by a game, while the Reds sit fourth in the six-team loop, three games behind.

On Friday, Jarrett Hoffpauir came through in a big way in his major league debut, hitting the go-ahead two-run single in the ninth inning, lifting St. Louis to a 7-4 win.

Fresh off being named NL Player of the Month, Albert Pujols belted his fourth grand slam of the season in the eighth inning and knocked in five runs over the final two frames. He upped his major league- leading totals to 31 homers and 82 RBI.

Jerry Hairston Jr. had three hits and an RBI for the Reds, who had won four of five coming into the weekend.

Reds starter Homer Bailey had a strong outing, yielding three hits and two runs over 7 1/3 innings, while St. Louis' Joel Pineiro allowed eight hits and three runs -- two earned -- in seven frames.

Nick Masset was on the mound for the top of the ninth, but left after taking a ball of his arm. Danny Herrera (1-4) then relieved Masset and retired Joe Thurston on a pop-up, but Colby Rasmus and Brendan Ryan singled and Skip Schumaker was safe on an error by shortstop Paul Janish, a ball that he couldn't handle on a short hop.

Then, in his first official big league at-bat, Hoffpauir smacked a soft liner to left field. Hoffpauir, a sixth-round draft pick by the Cardinals in 2004, was called up Wednesday from Triple-A Memphis and became the 15th rookie to appear with St. Louis this year.

Pujols then greeted reliever Carlos Fisher with an RBI double down the left- field line.

It was a tenuous bottom of the ninth, but Ryan Franklin was able to pick up his 20th save of the year. Edwin Encarnacion doubled with one out, and Willy Taveras walked with two down, putting runners at the corners. Joey Votto walked before Brandon Phillips struck out to end the game.

Cincinnati has split its eight meetings with the Cards this season.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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